Eight races in to the ten race chase, Carl Edwards holds a three point lead over Tony Stewart.
Tony has won four races in the chase, but let us consider his other four finishes: 25th, 15th, 8th, and 7th. An average of 13.5. Tony may win one more, but he will most likely be around 10th in the other.
How about Carl? Well, he hasn't won any chase races but his average finish is around 5th in the first eight races. I look for Carl to grab a couple of top fives and take the championship by six or seven points.
The biggest surprise this year? Jimmie Johnson's performance and lack of success. Jimmie has struggled through more than one of the races. Whether it was running out of gas at Chicago, hitting the wall at Charlotte, or succumbing to the ills of the tandem draft at Talladega, Johnson hasn't had the finishes to give him any kind of shot of winning an unprecedented sixth championship.
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